Worst Forecast Ever

So I have to confess: last night I made the single-worst forecast I’ve ever made.

Kimmirut is always a tricky spot with strong systems moving up from the south.  They always have very strong low-level jets associated with them from the east.  Kimmirut is in a slight valley, with higher terrain to their east that often prevents strong winds from reaching the townsite, instead deflecting them above the town.  They are far, far more susceptible to strong northeast winds than they are to easterly winds.

Yesterday, those “really strong” easterly winds managed to reach the surface, and Kimmirut spent most of the day with winds of 60km/h gusting to 90km/h.  When I went to work last night, things were beginning to ease up a little.

I did a thorough analysis of both the real data available to me and several different models to help me make my forecast for them for today.  All the models were in agreement that there would be maybe, maybe up to 5cm of snow and that the winds should resurface during the day again.  So, my forecast for them for today said periods of snow, 2-4cm, with winds 40km/h gusting to 60km/h except gusting to 80km/h at times.

So what happened?

15:00 Light Snow calm 99.71

14:00 Light Snow 12N 99.61

13:00 Heavy Snow 12N 99.60

12:00 Heavy Snow 12N 99.50.

11:00 Heavy Snow 12NNE 99.50

10:00 Heavy Snow 13N 99.50

9:00 Heavy Snow 12NNE 99.50

8:00 Snow 14N 99.50

7:00 Light Snow 13NNE 99.52

4 hours of heavy, heavy snow.  Over 30cm fell.  Oh, and the winds were calm all day.

Sometimes, when it comes to the weather, you just can’t win.

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